I am excited to share an accepted manuscript version of my forthcoming peer-reviewed book chapter… an analysis of Japan’s February 2026 general election and its implications for Japan’s defense policy. This will appear in the next volume of the Japan Decides series edited by Kenneth McElwain, Robert Pekkanen, and Daniel Smith. The book should be released circa spring 2027. I am grateful to the editors for the opportunity to contribute alongside such an esteemed and multinational group of Japan experts.

A suggested citation, abstract, and link to a PDF are available below. The citation and link will be updated after the volume is published in 2027:

• Liff, Adam P. 2027. “Japan’s 2026 Election and East Asia Security: Implications for Japan’s Defense Policy.” In Kenneth M. McElwain, Robert J. Pekkanen, and Daniel M. Smith (Eds.), Japan Decides 2026: The Japanese General Election, Chapter 16. Palgrave Macmillan.
• Japan’s 2026 HR election gave Prime Minister Takaichi’s LDP a historic single-party supermajority. This chapter analyzes how East Asia’s worsening security environment affected the campaign and the election result’s implications for Japan’s defense policy. It highlights the political realignment preceding February 8: the end of the LDP’s 26-year partnership with Kōmeitō, its new conservative coalition with Nippon Ishin no Kai, and the creation of the left-of-center/moderate Centrist Reform Alliance. Post-election, the LDP’s super-majority, the CRA’s resounding defeat, Takaichi’s continued popularity, and worsening anxieties about Japan’s external threat environment provide a tailwind for the LDP-Ishin coalition’s ambitious defense agenda. Nevertheless, other factors—including the LDP’s relatively low popularity, its lack of an Upper House majority, severe fiscal constraints, and the absence of clear public consensus on several key issues—will caution Japan’s leaders against pushing too hard too fast as they seek to bolster deterrence in an increasingly dangerous world.