My latest publication… highlighting five major and as-yet-unanswerable questions about what comes next for Japan’s national security strategy…was just published by the CSIS Japan Chair. This piece was co-authored with Chris Johnstone of The Asia Group.

You can read our analysis at the CSIS website (*open access*) by clicking the link below. Suggested citation:

Christopher B. Johnstone and Adam P. Liff, “Japan’s Present and Future National Security Strategy: Five Key Challenges to Watch,” Center for Strategic and International Studies. December 17, 2025.

A partial excerpt:

Since her historic election as Japan’s prime minister on October 21, Sanae Takaichi has hit the ground running on diplomacy and defense, generating an impressive array of global headlines. At a summit with Donald Trump mere days into her tenure, Takaichi pledged a “new golden age of the Japan-U.S. alliance” and committed to “further enhance [its] deterrence and response capabilities.” This followed her strikingly ambitious announcements to raise Japan’s defense-related spending to 2 percent of GDP two years ahead of schedule and to expedite revision of three major national security documents last updated just three years ago. […]

As Takaichi settles in as prime minister, there are many unanswered questions about what the future holds for the U.S.-Japan alliance in the “Trump-Takaichi” era. Takaichi’s high public approval and consolidation of a parliamentary majority in the Lower House (see below) suggest that she may be around for a while. If anything, recent developments have only reinforced domestic support for accelerating Japan’s defense buildup. They could provide a significant tailwind for Japan’s reform efforts and the alliance.[…]

But challenges lie ahead. Japan is attempting to do a lot in a short period of time, and there are manifold uncertainties about the future of U.S. priorities on issues important for Tokyo…Looking ahead in the short to medium term, five key issue areas will be important spaces to watch[…]